Ganesh Dongre Shares Key Stock Picks and Market Outlook for Nifty and Bank Nifty

The Indian stock market closed the week on a cautious note as the Nifty 50 index slipped by nearly 0.88% to end at 23,140, while the Bank Nifty dropped 1.38% to close at 55,580. Despite this overall downward trend, certain sectors such as Realty, Metals, and Chemicals showed resilience, posting gains between 1% and 2% over the week.

On the global front, geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the United States and Iran, continue to create uncertainty. Developments in the Middle East and fluctuations in crude oil prices remain critical factors influencing investor sentiment. Brent crude oil prices have stayed above the $100 per barrel threshold, which raises concerns about inflationary pressures and their impact on global markets.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the Nifty 50 has entered an oversold region following its recent decline. This downturn has been partially driven by apprehensions over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, with markets speculating about potential rate hikes in forthcoming quarters. The upward trend in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is also putting pressure on risk appetite globally.

Market Outlook According to Ganesh Dongre

Ganesh Dongre, Assistant Vice President of Equity Research at Anand Rathi, commented on the current market environment, suggesting that profit booking at elevated levels remains a possibility. He expects the Nifty 50 to experience a period of sideways consolidation during the upcoming monthly expiry week.

Discussing the Nifty 50 index specifically, Dongre noted that the index has struggled to maintain levels above the 23,500 to 23,600 resistance zone, a key technical barrier. He highlighted that a sustained weekly close above 23,600 could improve the short-term technical outlook and potentially pave the way for a recovery towards the 23,800 to 24,200 range.

On the downside, Dongre identified 23,000 as an important support level, referencing its history as a previous support zone. According to him, derivatives data suggests a relatively defined trading range for the expiry week, pointing to a cautious medium-term structure for both the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty despite recent corrections.

Bank Nifty: Key Levels to Watch

Regarding the Bank Nifty, Dongre observed that it remained under selling pressure throughout the week and is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 56,600. This technical level is crucial to monitor, as a move back above and sustained hold beyond the 200-day EMA could help the index regain strength.

He further stated that the broader support zone lies between 55,000 and 56,300, while resistance is expected around 56,500 to 56,800. A decisive break above 58,500 would be a positive signal, indicating a possible resumption of the medium-term uptrend.

Stock Picks for Monday

Looking ahead to trading activity on Monday, Ganesh Dongre recommended a selection of six stocks based on his analysis at Anand Rathi. These are:

1. Cochin Shipyard: Suggested buy range ₹1370 to ₹1380, with a target price of ₹1450 and a stop loss at ₹1340.
2. Voltas: Recommended buy between ₹1110 and ₹1120, targeting ₹1160, with a stop loss set at ₹1080.
3. Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL): Advised buy in the ₹390 to ₹395 range, aiming for ₹410, and a stop loss at ₹380.
4. Tata Steel: Suggested buy at ₹190, with a target of ₹196 and stop loss at ₹186.
5. Axis Bank: Recommended buy at ₹1222, target price ₹1260, stop loss ₹1200.
6. Vedanta Aluminium Metal: Buy recommendation at ₹426, target ₹440, stop loss ₹418.

These stock recommendations reflect a diverse set of sectors ranging from manufacturing and metals to banking and infrastructure, aligning with broader market themes such as industrial growth and commodity demand.

Context and Caution

Ganesh Dongre’s views underscore the importance of watching technical levels and macroeconomic factors like interest rate policies and geopolitical developments when making investment decisions in the current environment. Investors are advised to approach the market with caution, given the ongoing global uncertainties and potential volatility.

Disclaimer: The opinions and suggestions presented here are intended solely for educational and informational purposes. They represent the views of individual analysts and should not be construed as direct investment advice. Investors are encouraged to consult with certified financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

About the Author

Asit Manohar is an experienced journalist with nearly 20 years in mainstream media, having contributed to outlets such as NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. Currently with LiveMint Digital, he specializes in markets, personal finance, and external affairs. His background includes work in brokerage research, and he holds a gold medal in Mass Communication from Banaras Hindu University.