Impact of Democratic Control on Trump’s Foreign Policy in Iran and Ukraine

Following the US midterm elections, Democrats have taken control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This shift alters the balance of power in Washington and could significantly affect President Donald Trump's approach to foreign policy during his remaining two years in office. Experts suggest that while Trump will face increased scrutiny and legislative challenges, particularly on issues related to the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, he still holds considerable authority to act independently in these areas.

Laurel Rapp, director of the U.S. and North America Programme at Chatham House, explained in an interview with CNBC's Squawk Box Europe that the Democrats’ new majority enhances their ability to oversee and influence government actions, including foreign policy decisions. However, she noted that the president retains substantial latitude in directing foreign affairs. “We are going to see a president that is somewhat constrained on matters of oversight and investigation, but on foreign policy, he does still retain a lot of latitude,” Rapp stated.

The conflict with Iran has been a focal point during this election cycle. The war began in late February 2026 after the Trump administration coordinated strikes alongside Israel. This conflict has contributed to rising fuel and food prices, intensifying public concern over inflation. Rapp highlighted that the Democrats intend to pursue legislative measures aimed at limiting Republican control over war powers related to Iran. This may include votes in both the House and Senate to restrict the administration’s military actions.

Despite these efforts, Rapp cautioned that it remains uncertain whether such congressional actions will effectively restrain the administration. Democrats might attempt to use their control over federal spending to curtail financial support for the war. Still, any law directing an end to U.S. involvement would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override a potential presidential veto, making it difficult to enforce.

In a recent analysis, Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding predicted that the conflict with Iran might culminate in a final wave of airstrikes before a peace agreement is reached by 2027. This deal would aim to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global oil supplies. Schmieding pointed to voter dissatisfaction over high fuel costs and inflation as factors that could pressure the administration toward a resolution.

J.C. Lintzenich, a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, emphasized that President Trump should not be considered a lame duck despite the congressional shift. “This election changes the Congress; it does not change the president,” he told CNBC. Lintzenich noted that the president still wields significant power over unresolved foreign policy challenges, including ongoing tensions with Iran and the situation in Ukraine.

He added that while congressional oversight may increase, especially with Democrats controlling legislative spending, foreign policy execution remains primarily in the hands of the president and his appointed officials. The previous Congress had been more lenient toward the administration, but the new Democratic majority is expected to be more rigorous in enforcing laws and oversight responsibilities.

Schmieding also warned that Trump might face heightened difficulties with the Senate now under Democratic leadership. Congressional reluctance to back another costly military engagement similar to the Iran war could limit the administration’s options. Nevertheless, Schmieding suggested Trump’s unpredictable nature could lead him to pursue risky geopolitical moves despite these constraints.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, the election results could complicate Trump’s ability to obtain congressional approval or funding for any diplomatic agreements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the elections from Berlin, stating that the outcome would shape the future amid ongoing uncertainty. Zelenskyy expressed concern over potential disappointments but remained hopeful that international support would continue.

Schmieding characterized the possibility of Trump pushing Ukraine toward a deal favoring Russia as a low but notable risk. He noted that Republican voices, including Senator Marco Rubio, have grown more cautious regarding Russia’s intentions, which might help limit any effort by Trump to enforce an unfavorable agreement on Kyiv. Should such pressure occur, European nations would likely increase their assistance to Ukraine, but they would not be able to fully replace the critical military and intelligence support provided by the United States.

In summary, the Democratic takeover of Congress is poised to increase oversight and legislative challenges to President Trump’s foreign policy, especially concerning Iran and Ukraine. However, the president still retains considerable power to conduct foreign affairs, making the coming years pivotal for U.S. engagement in these global conflicts.