Severe Cyclone Murasu to Hit Andhra Pradesh Coast by Tuesday

A new cyclone threat is looming over the Andhra Pradesh coast as a deep depression in the southeast Bay of Bengal intensifies rapidly. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this system, named Murasu, is forecast to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm by Monday and make landfall on the south Andhra Pradesh coast by Tuesday.

The depression has been moving west-northwest at approximately 22 kilometers per hour and, as of Sunday midnight, was positioned roughly 830 kilometers east-southeast of Chennai and nearly 950 kilometers east-southeast of Ongole. The storm is expected to gain strength steadily, becoming a deep depression by Sunday afternoon, evolving into a cyclone by midnight, and intensifying further into a severe cyclonic storm by Monday.

IMD projections indicate that Murasu will approach the west-central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast early Tuesday morning. It is predicted to make landfall along a coastal stretch about 375 kilometers long, between Nellore and Narsapur. At landfall, sustained wind speeds are anticipated to be between 100 and 110 kilometers per hour, with gusts reaching up to 120 kilometers per hour.

Murasu will be the second cyclone to impact the Bay of Bengal region during the current northeast monsoon season. It follows closely on the heels of cyclone Arnab, which struck near Narsapur on October 28, causing significant damage and ongoing recovery efforts. The new cyclone is expected to hit just south of the area affected by Arnab, raising concerns about renewed disruption to communities still rebuilding from the previous storm.

Some global meteorological models have already identified this system as a deep depression, labeled provisionally as 04B, even before its official naming. Forecast updates from advanced artificial intelligence-based models as of 8:30 a.m. on Sunday suggest that rapid intensification is possible within the next 6 to 12 hours. Other models forecast a more gradual strengthening, with the cyclone reaching severe status by Monday morning.

Several environmental factors support the storm's intensification. Warm sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius provide ample heat and moisture to fuel the cyclone. Additionally, low to moderate easterly vertical wind shear will help maintain the storm's structural integrity, while a favorable upper-level outflow will allow air to efficiently escape from the cyclone's top layers, further promoting its development.

Along with strong winds, Murasu is expected to bring heavy to extremely heavy rainfall to coastal Andhra Pradesh and nearby regions. The IMD has issued rainfall forecasts indicating light to moderate rain across many areas on Sunday, increasing to heavy and very heavy rains in isolated locations by Monday. Extremely heavy rainfall could occur in some parts of the coast on Monday. The wet conditions are forecast to continue into Tuesday and Wednesday, affecting neighboring states such as Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and southern Odisha with varying intensities of rain.

Specifically, coastal Andhra Pradesh can expect light to moderate rainfall over many locations on Sunday, escalating to heavy and very heavy rain at some places by Monday, with isolated spots experiencing extremely heavy downpours. Rayalaseema is likely to receive light to moderate rain with heavy to very heavy showers at isolated points on Monday and Tuesday. Tamil Nadu and Telangana are forecast to see light to moderate rain with heavy showers sporadically on Monday and Tuesday. Southern Odisha will also experience increasing rainfall intensity from Monday through Wednesday, ranging from moderate to very heavy in some areas.

The arrival of cyclone Murasu poses a significant challenge to the southern Andhra Pradesh coast, which is still recovering from cyclone Arnab’s impact just days earlier. Authorities and residents are advised to remain vigilant and prepare for potential disruptions caused by strong winds and flooding. The IMD and related weather agencies will continue to monitor the system closely and update forecasts as the storm progresses.

This cyclone highlights the vulnerability of the Bay of Bengal coastal regions during the northeast monsoon season, when warm ocean waters and atmospheric conditions often lead to the formation of powerful storms. Understanding these patterns is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigating the effects on millions of people living in these coastal areas.