Traders Anticipate Strong Debut for Anthropic’s IPO on Crypto Markets

Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company preparing for its initial public offering later this month, has generated significant interest among traders, especially in the offshore crypto markets. The IPO is being closely watched as investors speculate on the potential price movement of the stock once it debuts.

While forecasting the exact market reaction on the first day of an IPO remains challenging, a new type of financial instrument known as pre-IPO perpetual futures has emerged as a potential indicator. These contracts, available on decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges such as Hyperliquid, Coinbase, Binance, and OKX, aim to mirror the valuation of private companies before they list publicly.

On Hyperliquid, Anthropic’s perpetual futures currently imply a valuation of about $98 per share, which translates into a market capitalization near $1.7 trillion. This figure is more than 30% above the range of $70 to $78 per share that the company disclosed in its updated S1 filing. Although trading on these platforms is not accessible to U.S. investors at the moment, the volume of trades remains substantial. Over the past 24 hours, roughly $250 million worth of Anthropic-related contracts exchanged hands on Hyperliquid alone.

The Anthropic perpetual futures first appeared on the market around two weeks ago, initially trading near $138 per share. They then settled into a narrower range between $110 and $120 before last week’s downturn in technology stocks pushed prices below $94 at one point. Supporters of this emerging asset class suggest that the elevated pricing of these contracts may reflect the tendency of investment banks to price IPO shares conservatively. This practice helps ensure that the stock experiences a price increase, or "pop," shortly after going public.

A similar pattern was observed with SpaceX, where pre-IPO perpetuals traded at a premium relative to initial offering prices. These contracts aligned closely with the eventual equity prices at the IPO, which was followed by a notable three-day rally of up to 40% post-listing. Such precedents give weight to the idea that Anthropic's IPO could experience a comparable positive market response.

The anticipation surrounding Anthropic’s public debut might be influencing other players in the AI industry as well. For instance, perpetual futures tracking OpenAI’s market capitalization have declined by approximately 7%, currently sitting near $1.27 trillion according to Hyperliquid data. These contracts have seen significant trading volume, totaling $2.8 billion over the last day, signaling active investor engagement.

Meanwhile, shares of Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR), a publicly traded treasury company that invests in HYPE tokens powering the Hyperliquid exchange, fell by 4% on Tuesday. Despite this dip, the stock has surged 150% year-to-date, reflecting growing investor interest in the underlying platform facilitating these pre-IPO contracts.

Anthropic’s upcoming roadshow and IPO are being viewed as a pivotal event within the technology and AI sectors. The capital raised through the offering will likely support further advancements in AI development, a field that has attracted considerable attention from investors and industry leaders globally. The performance of Anthropic’s shares following the IPO will be closely monitored as a barometer for investor sentiment toward AI companies and the broader tech market.

In summary, the robust trading activity and elevated pricing of Anthropic’s pre-IPO perpetual futures suggest that many market participants expect a strong debut for the company’s stock. As the IPO approaches, these instruments provide a unique glimpse into investor expectations ahead of the official public offering.