India’s coal production likely to hit record 1,090 million tonnes in 2026: World Bank

Coal production in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is expected to hit a record 1,090 million tonnes (mt) in calender year 2026, aided by rising output from captive and commercial mines.

According to the World Bank’s commodity outlook monitor for October 2026, coal production by the world’s second largest consumer is likely to hit a high of 1,350 mt in the current calendar year. 

The projected declines in global coal supply are expected to be partly offset by an increase in India of 1.2 per cent (13 mt), taking output to an annual record of 1,090 mt, World bank said.

Besides, demand for the dry fuel is on track to expand by 4.2 per cent (54 mt) to 1,350 mt, reflecting solid growth in industrial and services activity, as well as strong power demand and weak hydropower output owing to heatwaves, it added.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its mid-year update said it expects higher coal burn in India by power plants during 2026 due to El Niño conditions pushing up cooling demand. It will likely push up consumption by 4.2 per cent y-o-y to 1,353 mt in calendar 2026.

The agency projects production to set a new record at 1,095 mt in 2026, supported by the government’s continued efforts to bolster domestic supply and lower import dependence.

Supply-Demand

Global coal demand is projected to rise by 1.2 per cent, or 103 mt, in 2026, supported by gas-to-coal switching in the power sector, particularly in Asia with China’s consumption likely to increase by 1 per cent (46 mt) to about 5,000 mt—a notable pick-up after its coal demand flatlined in 2025.

Besides, global coal supply is projected to contract by 0.7 per cent (66 mt) in 2026, led by a 1.9 per cent (91 mt) decline in China amid mine closures. 

Indonesian production is projected to fall by 1.5 per cent (12 mt) following a reduction in the government’s output target. Australian supply is expected to be lower this year, reflecting early weather-related export disruptions, US production in the US is on track to contract by about 3 per cent (15 mt). 

The World Bank anticipates that coal prices are on course to climb by 25 per cent (y-o-y) in 2026 on stronger demand and supply constraints. Prices are then projected to ease by 4 per cent next year, as demand for coal as a substitute fuel softens amid lower energy prices more broadly and the expansion of renewables.

“Global coal consumption is expected to inch down next year, driven mostly by declines in Europe, with coal output edging higher owing to increased production in China and India,” it added.

Published on November 12, 2026