Moderna Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast as New Vaccines Gain Traction

Moderna delivered a strong third-quarter financial performance, surpassing revenue and earnings expectations, and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2026. The biotech company attributed this upward revision to the growing sales of its newer vaccine offerings and expanding geographic reach.

The company now anticipates revenue growth between 15% and 25% for 2026, a notable increase from its earlier guidance which capped growth at 10%. Moderna's Chief Executive Officer, Stéphane Bancel, highlighted the impact of product diversification and entry into new markets as key drivers behind the robust results in the third quarter.

One significant contributor to the improved outlook is Moderna's next-generation mRNA Covid vaccine. Approved in the United States in May 2025, this vaccine is beginning to show its full-year revenue impact. Bancel explained that the Covid vaccine business tends to be seasonal, with most government contracts secured in the first quarter. Therefore, the vaccine experienced only a limited launch during the previous year.

Similarly, Moderna's new standalone flu vaccine, which received U.S. approval in August 2025, is expected to have a modest launch in 2026. This is due to timing factors related to vaccine rollout cycles and contract negotiations. Despite these limitations, the company is optimistic about the growing demand for its expanded vaccine portfolio.

Looking at the financial details, Moderna reported third-quarter earnings of 38 cents per share, a significant turnaround from the loss of $1.25 per share analysts had forecasted. Revenue for the quarter reached $1.31 billion, well above the expected $885.1 million. The strong performance led to a roughly 5% rise in Moderna's shares during premarket trading. The stock has surged over 700% this year, largely fueled by enthusiasm for the company's personalized cancer vaccine program in partnership with Merck.

Breaking down the revenue geographically, Moderna earned $780 million from the U.S. market, while international sales contributed $533 million. The increase in Covid vaccine sales internationally and sustained deliveries under long-term government contracts were major factors supporting revenue growth.

Net income for the third quarter stood at $162 million, or 38 cents per share, a dramatic improvement from the net loss of $200 million, or 51 cents per share, recorded during the same period last year.

In recent weeks, Moderna and Merck announced encouraging late-stage clinical trial results for their experimental personalized cancer vaccine combined with the immunotherapy drug Keytruda. The vaccine targets certain patients with melanoma. However, the stock experienced volatility after partial trial data leaked on social media ahead of the official presentation at a European medical conference.

Bancel described the market's initial negative reaction as unexpected. Nevertheless, he noted that many long-term investors and analysts who studied the full data set reacted positively. Medical professionals who reviewed the trial results expressed strong interest and optimism, with several indicating they hope to incorporate the vaccine into routine treatment protocols.

Moderna's recent successes reflect broader trends in the biotechnology sector, where mRNA technology continues to expand beyond Covid vaccines into other infectious diseases and cancer therapies. The company's ability to innovate and adapt its platform has positioned it as a significant player in the evolving vaccine market.

As the global demand for advanced vaccines grows, Moderna's expanded product lineup and strategic partnerships are likely to support sustained revenue growth. The company’s progress in personalized cancer vaccines could open new avenues for treatment and revenue generation in the coming years.