India’s digital payments ecosystem is moving beyond a scale-led narrative, with merchant payments emerging as the core driver of revenues and accounting for nearly three-fourths of the industry’s net revenue pool, according to Bernstein’s latest sector primer.
The brokerage estimates the current payments revenue pool at roughly Rs 25,000 crore in gross revenues, or about Rs 15,000 crore in net revenues. This is projected to expand to nearly Rs 65,000 crore in gross revenues and approximately Rs 38,500 crore in net revenues by FY30 as digital adoption deepens and monetisation improves across payment layers.
Merchant ownership allows platforms to monetise across multiple layers payment processing fees, online gateway charges, device rentals, credit card acceptance and credit distribution. Models with stronger merchant ecosystems therefore generate structurally higher yields.
Within this merchant-led framework, Bernstein identified Paytm as a monetisation leader. The brokerage estimate
